DRC: Kabila vs Tshisekedi

The outgoing head of state was officially invested a presidential candidate on August 21. Facing him is Etienne “the Sphinx of Limete” Tshisekedi, the eternal opponent who arrived from a long tour abroad. But, at three months of the Congo’s presidential election, still count the voices of jean-Pierre Bemba and Vital Kamerhe.

Stakes: Before the electoral race the battle of stadiums.

Back from a tour that took him throughout Europe, the United States and South Africa, the opponent Etienne Tshisekedi, candidate for the upcoming presidential election of November 28, engaged in a real show of force on August 9, in Kinshasa. In an extremely packed Martyrs Stadium, he reiterated his willingness to achieve an irresistible march towards his destiny as the country’s president.

And for those who still had doubts, the troops of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress (UDPS) have demonstrated that they had not lost their ability to mobilize. The opposition leader’s three-year-long medical exile (which ended with his return to the country last December), the unconvincing boycott of the 2006 elections, and the party’s internal strife had not smeared the charisma of the Sphinx of Limete, today aged 79. In Kinshasa, at least.

Less than  a couple of weeks later, the political formation of the head of state tried to achieve the same at the closure of its congress. Using the same stadium on August 21, through the voice of its Secretary General Evariste Boshab, though in the absence of the “boss”, the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democarcy (PPRD) invested “Comrade Joseph Kabila” as a presidential candidate. Nevertheless, in terms of the size of the massed supporters, the winner is the historic opponent.

Less than two weeks later, the formation of the head of state tried to do as well at the end of its congress. At the same stage, August 21, through the voice of its Secretary General Evariste Boshab but in the absence of “boss”, the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) invested “Comrade Joseph Kabila.” But in terms of supporters massed, the winner is the opponent.

With or without cheating

 “The face-to face meeting between Kabila and Tshisekedi is shaping up”, ascertains the entourage of the candidate of the UDPS. As for the PPRD, it prepares a campaign that looks challenging. “The record of the incumbent president is thin”, said one diplomat. In fact, the Congolese people have not seen much of the five projects (infrastructure, water and electricity, health and education, housing, and employment) presented in 2006.

The exasperation of the people of Kinshasa, faced with constant water and electricity shortage, could be expressed at the polls. Similarly, the promise of a return to peace in the North-East has remained a dead letter. And it is not clear that the outgoing majority, weakened by internal dissents, can attract voters. But Kabila enjoys one big advantage: the election is to take place in one round.

“If the opposition is unable to agree on a single candidate, the arithmetic will be relentless and victory is assured for Kabila, with or without cheating,” says the same diplomat who questioned the independence and neutrality of the Independent National Electoral Commission (Ceni) headed by Daniel Ngoy Mulunda, a relative of the president.

Thus, children would be among the 32 million registered voters (images seem to attest it), paving the way for all interpretations of possible ballot stuffing, the management of electronic transmission of results on the vote day, and the control of the computer program responsible for compiling the data set.

Opponents demand an audit the Ceni’s central card-file. “This card-file is a black box and there are anomalies in the census: 7 million more voters than in 2006, it seems much,” says one international expert.

“Donors need to be more insistent and can no longer hide behind the principle of non-interference when they finance the electoral process,” says Vital Kamerhe, the former president of the National Assembly, determined, also, to play a leading role in the conquest of the highest office, or at least in the defeat of Kabila.

This requires an agreement.—a “ticket”, according to the candidate of the Union for the Congolese Nation (UNC). In short: a champion for the presidential election appointed and supported by an alliance of parties, a name for the post of prime minister, guarantees of a fair distribution of ministerial portfolios and insurance for a balance in the National Assembly and Senate.

Problem: Vital Kamerhe’s calls have for now not been heard. On the UDPS side, there is willingness to talk about “everything” except the nomination of Tshisekedi, who is supported by 24 additional parties since August 24 and “not debatable”. “The games are clear and everyone can see that our candidate is the best person,” ascertains his entourage. “I ask Tshisekedi a little more humility and elegance,” replies Kamerhe.

Keep the house

Failure to reach agreement with Tshisekedi, Kamerhe could be closer to Jean-Pierre Bemba, who, from his cell in The Hague, said he would defend the colors of the Congo Liberation Movement (MLC), and Leon Kengo wa Dondo, the current president of the Senate to head the Union of Forces for Change (UFC), created last July. “The talks are progressing quickly and well. We are close to agreement, “says Kamerhe.

“The MLC provides its experience and its importance in the west, Kamerhe is popular in Eastern and Kengo provides extra significant because every vote counts,” said Fidele Babala, the man of Bemba in Kinshasa, in charge of into the “shack” in the absence of the chairman.

Except that the same Babala is careful to emphasize that Bemba’s candidacy is “more than ever.” The implication others will line up behind him. Prosecuted for the atrocities committed by his men in Central Africa between 2002 and 2003, the Challenger 2006 is awaiting trial. This could come in December.

But around him, you always want to believe it. Despite an initial refusal of the Trial Chamber of the International Criminal Court (ICC) announced on August 19, a bail is always possible.

This would allow Bemba to come to Kinshasa to register time on the electoral roll and thus validate its entry in the race – the deadline for submitting applications is September 5. But no one has to believe in such a scenario.